The limits of the global energy system’s resilience were being tested on Wednesday as Iran threatened strikes against Gulf energy infrastructure following an Israeli attack on the South Pars gasfield. The Revolutionary Guards named specific facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as imminent targets and ordered evacuation. Oil prices surged toward $110 a barrel as the test of resilience pushed the global energy system closer to its breaking point than at any previous moment in the conflict.
South Pars, the world’s largest natural gas reserve, is shared between Iran and Qatar. The Israeli attack — reportedly with US authorization — was the first direct strike on Iranian fossil fuel production. Washington and Tel Aviv had previously avoided this step, understanding that crossing it would test the global energy system’s resilience in ways that could prove beyond its capacity to absorb.
Iran’s state broadcaster named Saudi Arabia’s Samref refinery and Jubail complex, the UAE’s al-Hosn gasfield, and Qatar’s Mesaieed and Ras Laffan facilities as targets for strikes within hours. All workers and residents near these sites were ordered to leave without delay. Governor Eskandar Pasalar of Asaluyeh called the US-Israeli attack “political suicide” and declared the conflict had entered a total economic warfare phase.
Brent crude climbed to $108.60 per barrel, while European gas prices surged more than 7.5%. Gulf oil exports had already fallen 60% from pre-war levels due to sustained infrastructure attacks and Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade. Iran had maintained its own crude exports through the strait while blocking Gulf neighbors’ shipments — a strategic weapon that had already severely tested the global energy system’s resilience throughout the conflict.
Qatar’s government spokesperson warned that attacking energy infrastructure was a grave threat to global energy security, the environment, and millions of regional residents. The resilience of the global energy system had been tested before — by the oil shocks of the 1970s, by the Gulf Wars, by the COVID-19 pandemic. But the combination of threats now converging in the Gulf represented a test unlike any of those previous challenges in its scope, specificity, and immediacy.